Oil price 2011 = Crude Oil Price Forecast 2011 : NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The Energy Information Administration expects oil prices to gradually rise through the end of next year, the agency said Tuesday in its monthly short-term energy outlook.
Benchmark U.S. crude oil will on average cost $79.83 a barrel in 2010, up from the previous outlook for $78.67 a barrel, the agency said. Prices are seen increasing from an average $77 a barrel in the first quarter of 2010 to $85 a barrel by the fourth quarter of 2011. In 2011, prices will average $83.50 a barrel, the agency said.
Gasoline prices are expected to average $2.84 a gallon this year, up 1 cent from the previous forecast, while diesel prices are seen averaging $2.98 a gallon this year, up 2 cents from last month's outlook. In 2011, gasoline is seen averaging $2.96 a gallon and diesel $3.14 a gallon.
Prices are expected to rise as "the world oil market should gradually tighten in 2010 and 2011, provided the global economic recovery continues as projected," the EIA said. Economic growth in developed economies that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development should increase from 1.2% in 2010 to 2.7% in 2011.
The EIA said that residential heating oil prices will average $2.78 a gallon this winter, up 1 cent from the previous forecast.
Oil prices may average close to US$79 this year, above previous forecasts : U.S. crude oil is expected to rise to an average of US$78.91 a barrel in 2010, a Reuters poll found on Thursday, and analysts said medium-term economic improvement could spur investment in oil, sending prices higher. The poll of 32 analysts showed a rising consensus forecast for the 11th consecutive month. In April of last year, the average forecast for 2010 was US$65.95 a barrel. In February analysts forecast a year-end price of US$77.70. "As demand for gasoline rises this summer, and investors see oil as an attractive medium-term economic macro play, crude prices could move higher than we are currently forecasting," said Jason Schenker at Prestige Economics in Austin, Tex. "What we suspect is that the upper end of the price band has moved to an US$85 comfort zone, but that could mean short-term blips to US$90," said Lawrence Eagles at JPMorgan. "Later in the year, our price target of US$90 means intraday blips to US$100 are not impossible."
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